Housing affordability by city in 2026 — the markets where the math has gotten worse and the few where it hasn't
Price-to-income ratios, required income to buy a median home, and the payment burden as a share of take-home pay — broken down across major US metros.
National affordability numbers hide what is actually happening in individual markets. A $400,000 median home in Indianapolis is a very different problem than a $1.1 million median in San Jose. This breakdown looks at the required gross income to buy the median-priced home in twelve major metros at today's rate — and shows which cities have gotten worse since 2022 and which have stabilized.
Required income to buy the median home
The table below shows the gross annual income needed to stay inside the 28% front-end DTI limit on the median home in each metro, at a 7% rate with 10% down and local average property tax and insurance:
| Metro | Median price | Monthly PITI | Income needed | vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose, CA | $1,410,000 | $10,840 | $464,000 | +18% |
| San Francisco, CA | $1,120,000 | $8,600 | $368,600 | +12% |
| Los Angeles, CA | $840,000 | $6,450 | $276,400 | +9% |
| New York, NY | $730,000 | $5,820 | $249,400 | +14% |
| Denver, CO | $560,000 | $4,410 | $189,000 | +3% |
| Austin, TX | $490,000 | $4,150 | $177,900 | −8% |
| Phoenix, AZ | $430,000 | $3,480 | $149,100 | −5% |
| Nashville, TN | $410,000 | $3,200 | $137,100 | +7% |
| Chicago, IL | $340,000 | $2,960 | $126,900 | +4% |
| Atlanta, GA | $320,000 | $2,620 | $112,300 | +6% |
| Columbus, OH | $270,000 | $2,210 | $94,700 | +2% |
| Indianapolis, IN | $240,000 | $1,970 | $84,400 | +1% |
10% down, 7% rate, 30-year term. PITI includes estimated local property tax and homeowner's insurance. Income needed = monthly PITI ÷ 28% × 12. "vs 2022" = change in required income since peak rates began.
The three tiers of dysfunction
The data falls into three clear groups. The coastal crisis markets (San Jose, SF, LA, NY) require incomes that only a small fraction of residents earn — even at the household level. San Jose's $464,000 required income is above the 95th percentile for individual earners nationally. These markets function largely on dual high incomes, equity from prior property, or employer housing assistance.
The mid-tier growth markets (Denver, Austin, Nashville) absorbed enormous migration between 2020 and 2023, which drove prices to levels that are high relative to local incomes even if they look cheap compared to coastal markets. Austin's required income has actually declined 8% from its 2022 peak as the market corrected — but at $177,900, it is still above the local median household income of roughly $88,000.
The Midwest and secondary metros (Columbus, Indianapolis, Atlanta) remain the most accessible markets, with required incomes that are achievable for dual-earner households at median local wages. These are also the markets where investor activity and population inflows are now creating upward pressure that did not exist before 2020.
What has to change for affordability to improve
Three variables move the affordability equation: prices, rates, and incomes. Rates falling from 7% to 5.5% on a $500,000 home reduces the required income by roughly $22,000 — a meaningful but not transformative shift. Prices correcting 10% have approximately the same effect. Real affordability improvement requires some combination of both, sustained over multiple years, while incomes continue to rise.
The structural constraint is supply. The US is short an estimated 3.5–4 million housing units against household formation trends. Without a substantial increase in new construction, especially in the mid-tier markets now facing the same supply constraints that coastal cities have had for decades, affordability improvements driven by rate declines tend to get absorbed by price appreciation.
Find your number
The affordability calculator applies the 28/36 rule to your specific income, debts and down payment — giving you a price range based on what you can actually borrow, not a metro median.
Common questions
What does the price-to-income ratio mean?
It is the median home price divided by median household income. A ratio of 5× means a typical home costs five years of a typical household's gross income. Historically, US ratios above 4× were considered stretched. Most major metros are now well above that, which is why affordability feels broken even when incomes have risen.
Why are some Sun Belt cities getting more expensive even as rates rise?
Population inflows from higher-cost metros have sustained demand in cities like Austin, Phoenix and Nashville. Remote work buyers from San Francisco or New York can outbid local buyers even after rate increases. Inventory shortages compound the effect — new construction has not kept pace with migration.
Which cities have seen the biggest affordability improvements?
Markets that saw the sharpest pandemic-era price spikes have also seen the sharpest corrections: Austin, Boise, Phoenix and parts of the Pacific Northwest. Price-to-income ratios in these markets have improved 10–20% from their 2022 peaks, though they remain above pre-pandemic norms.
Does higher income always solve the affordability problem?
In high-cost markets, not entirely. In San Francisco, even a dual-income household at $250,000 combined faces a front-end DTI problem on a median-priced home at current rates. Affordability is a ratio — income growth has to outpace both price growth and rate increases simultaneously to improve it.